Vector-borne Disease Airport Importation Risk Tool

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Find a Destination Airport

Select a Disease

Select a Disease Map logo

Info for disease map choices

A variety of spatial data on disease distributions and prevalence are available to choose from. Full details are provided in the user guide here. In brief:

P.falciparum endemicity: a detailed 2010 endemicity map for P. falciparum malaria produced from 25,000 community surveys. Methods described here.

P.vivax endemicity: a map documenting the extent of stable and unstable P. vivax malaria transmission in 2009. Methods described here.

Dengue suitability: a map showing the predicted suitability for dengue transmission based on thousands of reports of dengue cases.

Dengue transmission: the same map as above, but only including those countries and regions that had recorded transmission in 2010, according to a recent CDC map.

Dengue outbreak prone: a map showing the predicted suitability for significant dengue outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

Yellow fever transmission: a map showing the predicted suitability for yellow fever transmission based on hundreds of reports of yellow fever cases.

Yellow fever outbreak prone: a map showing the predicted suitability for significant yellow fever outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

Chikungunya outbreak prone: a map showing the predicted suitability for significant chikungunya outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

Or Select a Vector Map logo

Info for vector map choices

A variety of spatial data on vector distributions are available to choose from. Full details are provided in the user guide. In brief:

Aedes aegypti: a map showing the predicted presence of Aedes aegypti based on hundreds of confirmed presence location data points from here.

Aedes albopictus: a map showing the predicted presence of Aedes albopictus based on hundreds of confirmed presence location data points derived from here.

Anopheles: a map showing the predicted presence of one or more of the dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria based on thousands of confirmed presence location data and expert opinion maps described in these three publications: 1, 2, 3.

Direct flights
One transfer

Dengue endemic areas (Yellow book): a map showing the predicted suitability for dengue transmission based on thousands of reports of dengue cases.

The global map of Predicted suitability (0-1 scale) for dengue transmission (Yellow book) is presented here:

Dengue suitable areas (niche model): a map showing the predicted suitability for dengue transmission based on thousands of reports of dengue cases.

The global map of Dengue suitable areas (niche model) is presented here:

Dengue outbreak areas (niche model): a map showing the predicted suitability for significant dengue outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

The global map of Dengue outbreak areas (niche model) is presented here:

P. falciparum prevalence: a detailed 2010 endemicity map for P. falciparum malaria produced from 25,000 community surveys. Methods described here.

The global map of Predicted P. falciparum malaria prevalence (0-1 scale) is presented here:

P. vivax endemic areas: a map documenting the extent of stable and unstable P. vivax malaria transmission in 2009. Methods described here.

The global map of P. vivax endemic areas is presented here:

Yellow fever suitable areas (niche model): a map showing the predicted suitability for yellow fever transmission based on hundreds of reports of yellow fever cases.

The global map of Predicted yellow fever suitability on 0-100 scale (niche model) is presented here:

Chikungunya outbreak areas (niche model): a map showing the predicted suitability for significant chikungunya outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

The global map of Predicted suitability for chikungunya outbreaks on 0-1 scale (niche model) is presented here:

Aedes aegyptipresence: a map showing the predicted presence of Aedes aegypti based on hundreds of confirmed presence location data points from here.

The global map of Predicted probability of Ae. aegypti presence (0-1 scale) is presented here:

Predicted Ae. albopictus distribution: a map showing the predicted presence of Aedes albopictus based on hundreds of confirmed presence location data points derived from here.

The global map of Predicted probability of Ae. albopictus presence (0-1 scale) is presented here:

Predicted Anopheles distribution: a map showing the predicted presence of one or more of the dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria based on thousands of confirmed presence location data and expert opinion maps described in these three publications: 1, 2, 3.

The global map of Predicted probability of Anopheles presence (0-1 scale) is presented here:

Yellow fever outbreak areas (niche model): Yellow fever outbreak prone: a map showing the predicted suitability for significant yellow fever outbreaks based on data on outbreaks since 2008 reported on healthmap.

The global map of Predicted suitability for yellow fever outbreaks on 0-1 scale (niche model) is presented here:

Global map showing the predicted risk of dengue transmission as outlined in Bhatt et al (2013) Nature,496(7446):504-7.

The global map of Predicted suitability (0-1 scale) for dengue transmission is presented here:

Imported Disease Risks

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Imported Disease

This section of the tool is aimed at providing estimates for the relative risks between scheduled flights of incoming air passengers carrying cases of the selected disease. Two simple measures are calculated for the selected airport, disease and month: (i) scheduled passenger capacity for 2011 on all routes coming from endemic or outbreak risk regions of the selected disease; (ii) these passenger capacity numbers rescaled by the disease risk value in the region of origin.

The risk values calculated are based solely on scheduled incoming flight routes in 2011, the traffic capacity on these routes and the estimated endemic disease risk at the origin airport region. These estimates do not take into account additional risk-modifying factors such as passenger numbers, traveler activities and prophylaxis use, seasonal variations in disease transmission, chartered flights or multiple stopovers. Further details can be found in the user guide and the user-generated reports.

This metric shows scheduled passenger capacity for 2011 on all routes coming from endemic or outbreak risk regions of the selected disease or its supporting vector;
This metric shows scheduled passenger capacity number rescaled by the disease risk value in the region of origin.

Imported Vector

This section of the tool is aimed at providing first-step estimates for the relative risks between scheduled routes of incoming flights bringing exotic disease vectors and their consequent establishment. Two simple measures are calculated for the selected airport, vector and month: (i) Flight capacities rescaled by climatic similarity between origin and destination regions for flights originating in vector presence regions. This metric is based on the assumption that the risk of exotic vector arrival and establishment is related to the amount of traffic between locations (increasing the probability of carriage) and also the similarity of the climate at the destination to that in its home range, accounting for seasonal variations. (ii) The previous metric rescaled by the vector suitability value at the origin region. This provides additional refinement of the previous metric to account for spatial variations in vector suitability and abundance across the world.

The risk values calculated are based solely on scheduled incoming flight routes in 2011, the traffic capacity on these routes, the climatic similarity to origin regions and the predicted presence of the vector at the origin airport region. These estimates do not take into account additional risk-modifying factors such as passenger numbers, vector preferences, vector control in place, seasonal variations in disease vector population sizes, or charter flights. Further details can be found in the user guide and the user-generated reports.

Please select a metric on the left for risk assessment.
This metric shows flight capacities rescaled by climatic similarity and by the vector suitability value at the origin region. This provides additional refinement of the previous metric to account for spatial variations in vector suitability and abundance across the world
This metric shows flight capacities rescaled by climatic similarity between origin and destination regions for flights originating in vector presence regions. This metric is based on the assumption that the risk of exotic vector arrival and establishment is related to the amount of traffic between locations (increasing the probability of carriage) and also the similarity of the climate at the destination to that in its home range, accounting for seasonal variations.

Top 10 routes by traffic from disease endemic areas
Top 10 routes by risk-scaled traffic from disease endemic areas
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This section of the tool is aimed at providing first-step estimates for the relative risks between scheduled routes of incoming flights bringing infected passengers, and these passengers coming into contact with active, competent vectors to facilitate onward transmission. Two simple measures are calculated for the selected airport, disease and month: (i) Flight capacities rescaled by climatic similarity between origin and destination regions for flights originating in disease endemic or outbreak prone regions. This metric is based on the assumption that the risk of infected passenger arrival and onward disease spread is related to the amount of traffic between locations (increasing the probability of disease carriage) and also the similarity of the climate at the destination to that of the origin, since vector activity is required at both locations to firstly provide infected passengers, and secondly prompt onward transmission at the selected destination. (ii) The previous metric rescaled by the disease endemicity/risk value at the origin region. This provides additional refinement of the previous metric to account for spatial variations in disease risk across the world. Finally, the opportunity to overlay a map depicting travel time to the nearest major settlement is available, to provide contextual information on (i) airport disease accessibility at the origin and (ii) the potential ease of disease spread upon arrival.

The risk values calculated are based on scheduled incoming flight routes in 2011, the traffic capacity on these routes, the climatic similarity to origin regions and the predicted presence of the disease at the origin airport region and competent vector at the destination airport region. These estimates do not take into account additional risk-modifying factors such as passenger numbers, vector preferences, passenger activities, seasonal variations in disease vector population sizes, or vector control measures in place. Further details can be found in the user guide and the user-generated reports.


Top 10 routes by climatic similarity‐scaled traffic
Top 10 routes by climatic similarity and risk-scaled traffic

Top 10 Routes By Selection

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Selected airport
Connected by direct flight
Connected by one stop

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